So far its true

So guys I am back after a while. I was busy observing what I have been saying and the past weeks have reinforced my observations and beliefs about the 2010 monsoons whatever the BS the government of India wants to spurt about the monsoons. The behavior and the effect of the El Nino has been really interesting. Record monsoons in Rajasthan including the Thar dessert (Pushkar lake has water for the first time in two years). Probably if we have some repeated El Nino events, the camels would become extinct. Gujarat has had 100% more rains than average till date. Check the latest rainfall distribution from the IMD website below.

If you observe closely, the pattern and the effect of the El Nino effect is more or less clear. Western and Southern India will receive above average rainfall during the year while the majority of the food belt, northern and eastern India will be hugely deficient. Given that the rains are heavier in the southern and western parts of India the average amount of rain tends to touch the expected average which is used to put wool in the ordinary citizen's eyes by the met department.
Its obvious that such high rainfall restricted to certain parts of the country will cause floods (recent example of Gujarat getting flooded including Ahmedabad airport) while Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal is experiencing droughts. All this when the patterns were right out there for the met department and for us to see. Unfortunately the country is never prepared for any exigency. Dont read too much about floods in Delhi. Its the handiwork of the incredibly inefficient preparations for the Commonwealth Games and the associated corruption. Delhi and the NCR region is still under drought as per the above figure.
The met department has suddenly become very quiet now and not coming out with bold statements about the monsoons. The government is now biting its nails wondering what would the combination of the failed kharif crops (whose effect would be evident at the end of the year) and the wastage of foodgrains would do to inflation. They are banking on probably the Commonwealth Games to distract its citizens which no doubt would be another fiasco. If they are hoping that suddenly there would be a spurt of rainfall in the drought regions to make up for the deficiency, God help us because the folks out there would be swept away in floods.
Inflation would probably reach the levels of last year by the end of this year (close to 18-20%) instead of what the two Alices in Wonderland (Montek Singh Ahluwalia and our own Prime Minister) are predicting of inflation reaching 5% which would break the backs of the poor.
Worse times are coming coupled with the fact that the overall growth world over will come to a standstill. Lets hope for some sort of a miracle.